Jon Ossoff speaks to volunteers and supporters on April 17 in Roswell, Georgia. (Getty)
With just under one month to go until the runoff election, Democrat Jon Ossoff has increased his lead on Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th district runoff election, a new poll found.
The exclusive poll, performed by SurveyUSA on behalf of WXIA-TV Atlanta, shows Ossoff ahead of Handel by 7 percentage points (51-44) with a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
The firm surveyed 700 voters that are registered to vote in the June 20 runoff election between the two candidates. Of those 700 respondents, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the runoff or were “certain to do so before the June 12 deadline.” It gauged responses from voters via cell phone and landline and gathered answers from May 16-20.
The poll found that 52 percent of women said they’d vote for Ossoff, while 43 percent said they would lend their support to Handel. Handel is the favorite with voters aged 50 and older (52-43) with Ossoff having a large advantage with young voters (59-34).
Results when asked, “If you were filling out your ballot in the runoff election for US House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Karen Handel? Or Democrat Jon Ossoff? (SurveyUSA)
To see the complete results of the new survey, click here.
The methodology — using a voter list with so many of them having confirmed they voted — is the first to be used in polling throughout the race, meaning it could have some merit come election day.
FiveThirtyEight gave SurveyUSA an “A” in its pollster rating, noting that it’s correctly called 90 percent of races with its polls. It’s got a mean-reverted bias of “D +0.1,” meaning it typically leans Democrat 0.1 percent of the time in its polls.
SurveyUSA said in its findings that the race is still “close enough in a low-turnout, stand-alone runoff to be anyone’s call,” adding that Ossoff currently sits in a much better position than Handel to win.
Ossoff notably lives just outside of the 6th district with his fiancee, Alisha Kramer. He’s vowed to stick by her side as she finishes up school at Emory University and has said that if he were to win the seat, he would move back within the district, which covers much of Atlanta’s northern suburbs.
With that in mind, a second question in the poll asked voters’ views of Ossoff living outside of the 6th district and if that plays a role in swaying their vote. Eighty-four percent of registered Democrats and 21 percent of registered Republicans said it is “not an issue.”
Another question on the survey asked if Handel not having a college degree plays a role in swaying their vote. Fifty-eight percent of total respondents said they don’t consider it an issue while 21 percent said it’s a “minor issue.”
What’s At Stake?
Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel are leading in the polls in Georgia’s 6th congressional district special election. (Ossoff for Congress/Handel for Congress)
The special election is to replace Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, who represented Georgia’s 6th district in the House for the past 12 years. The district is Republican-leaning, but it’s not far-fetched that a Democrat can win the seat.
President Donald Trump won the district in the 2016 presidential election, but not by much — 1.5 percentage points to be exact, signifying that the Democrats may have a real chance to flip the seat blue for the first time since John J. Flynt Jr. won the seat in 1965.
Ossoff won the first round of voting April 18, but didn’t garner the 50 percent needed to win the seat outright, meaning the top-two candidates would face off in a runoff election.
Of the 17 candidates in the original field, Ossoff grabbed 48.1 percent to Handel’s 19.2. But because there were 11 Republicans that made up the field, many suspected those votes would be transferred to Handel. But recent polling has indicated that may not be the case.
A poll that was released May 14 showed Ossoff and Handel in a dead heat as the election nears.
Florida-based Gravis Marketing performed the poll, which showed Ossoff leading Handel 47 percent to 45 percent. It was conducted from May 8-10 and had a 3.3 percent margin of error, another sign that the race is virtually a tossup.
Click here to see the full results of the poll.
Previous polls in the runoff election have shown similar results.
One poll released in early May conducted for WSB-TV showed Handel leading Ossoff 49.1 percent to 46.5 percent.
And a separate poll performed by a Democratic polling firm showed very similar results. Respondents were surveyed right after the first round of the special election, and the results showed Ossoff ahead of Handel by one point (48-47).
Sensing the importance of the congressional race, record amounts of money and national support has continuously poured into the race. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the current cost of the race is in uncharted territory for a Congressional race.
Just this past weekend, House Speaker Paul Ryan went on the campaign trail for Handel.
It’s the most expensive race for a House seat ever, and it’s become an “ad war” ever since campaigns officially launched back in January, as NPR reported May 21. The total amount spent on TV ads alone is on track to eclipse $30 million — more than one-third the amount the Trump campaign spent on a nationwide, presidential election.
Time to Debate
(Twitter)
With June 20 right around the corner, Ossoff and Handel have agreed to debate live on prime-time TV. The debate will be televised on WSB-TV 2 from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. EDT.
Shortly after the first round of voting, Ossoff challenged Handel to six debates, and her campaign seemed to encourage them.
“We welcome any chance to highlight Jon Ossoff’s inexperience and are excited to have a robust debate on the issues,” a campaign spokesperson said.
But the six debates were whittled down to three, and then two, after Handel declined an invitation to debate at Dunwoody Homeowners Association.
Handel’s campaign spokesperson Charlie Harper told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the campaign is vetting debate invites and will eventually produce an official schedule.
“Karen is looking forward to having several debates where she will highlight for Georgia families how Jon Ossoff’s dangerously liberal policies will increase taxes and put our national security at risk,” Harper told the paper.
Jon Ossoff vs. Karen Handel: Runoff Coming Up in Georgia
Results of a special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district Tuesday didn't determine an outright winner. Because of that, the race heads to a runoff.
Click here to read more
